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12 out of 1000 women at age forty who participate in routine screening have breast cancer. 880 out of 1000 women with breast cancer will get positive mammographies. 90 out of 1000 women without breast cancer will also let positive mammographies. If 100 women in this age group undergo a routine screening, about what fraction of women with positive mammographies will actually have breast cancer?

Friday, July 23rd, 2010

Solution:

1.    Out of 100 women, we expect 1.2 to actually have breast cancer (12 out of 1000)
2.    However, only 88% (880 out of 1000) of these will be detected, so 1.056 (i.e. 88% of 1.2) will be detected
3.    In addition, of the 98.8 women who don’t have breast cancer 9% (90 out of 1000) will trigger a false positive” (9% of 98.8 = 8.892)
4.    So out of 100 women, 9.948 will have positive mammography readings (1.056+9.892)
5.    Of these 9.948, only 1.056 will actually have breast cancer
6.    10.6% = (1.056/1.056+9.892) This ratio is essentially an application of Bayes Theorem

Please click on http://www.thegodofreason.com/bayesintro.pdf to download a PDF that explains how Bayes Theorem works. Page 3 gives an example that is very similar to your problem:

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